Prediction Markets are Moving More Into Esports – What Does that Mean for Valorant? 

Prediction markets have been booming across the US this year. The newly multi-billion dollar business sector mixes financial trading and betting on a range of contracts from pop culture, to geopolitics to finance and sports. This includes many popular esports, and Valorant. 

Prediction market Kalshi saw $238 million traded across 4.05 million trades – on esports, in June. Valorant saw roughly 10% of that for $23.8 million traded. That’s one sub market, on one platform, for one month trading $23 million. Over June an estimated $50 billion was traded on prediction markets total, mostly at leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket. So how did prediction markets move into esports so quickly – and where is this relationship going in the future? 

What are Prediction Markets Exactly? 

Right now, depending on where you live in the world, you can at least look at an average of around 20 markets a day on competitive Valorant at Kalshi alone. The market is so expansive already, there are even contracts on academy games. Although of course right now a lot of attention is on the 2026 Esports World Cup. 

In its simplest form, prediction markets let you put money down on if you think an event will occur. If it does, you’re paid out. If not you get nothing. Betting, basically. But – it’s more complex than that. 

Because you buy “shares” in outcomes that change value, and you can buy and sell at any time. The process goes like this:

1. Market opens on Evil Geniuses vs NRG for example 

2. Early market makers think NRG are slight favorites – price opens at 52% to 48% EG 

3. Traders buy in at that price point – 1 share on NRG is $0.52 

4. The price shifts, or not, as traders make their choices and buy in 5. You can also sell at any point 

6. When the contract concludes – for example NRG win, traders who had the winning side are paid out $1 for each share. Incorrect holders get nothing. 7. Therefore if you bought in (and held) at $0.52 you would make $0.48 profit on each share. But if the market shifted to NRG as the game went on and you bought at $0.75 per share – you’d only make $0.25 profit per share. 

You could also sell at any point. So if you bought in at $0.52 on NRG and then sold at $0.75 you could lock in that $0.23 profit per share. 

This model, sort of betting but also partly financial trading (depending on who you ask) has allowed platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to roll out across the US, under the jurisdiction of the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Now they’re seeing billions traded monthly, and in yearly revenues. 

Why The Model Fits Esports – and What Kind of Contracts Are There? 

Prediction markets are very suited to esports. Why? 

Firstly, the market was already proven. The standard esports betting market was already big, and growing. It grew 30% in betting volume in 2025, and Valorant was one of the top titles. However, being gamers – putting an extra layer of trading complexity onto a familiar model has made esports prediction markets very popular very quickly. 

One example of this is the similar system of bonus codes, welcome offers that esports bettors at traditional sportsbooks will recognize well. For example, tracking down a Kalshi promo code worth using via an online guide from Sportsbook Review will be a familiar experience to any sports bettor. Customers use these operators to compare promo and bonus terms between prediction markets, just as they do sportsbooks. 

As well as bonuses, traders look for depth – which is one reason why esports betting is so popular. Esports has lots of different options because there are lots of games daily, and they create a lot of data. With games like Valorant, round per round and map per map contracts are already common at prediction markets. Expect those options to only grow further as the operators do, and they certainly are doing that. 

Recent Developments and Challenges to the Model 

In recent months Kalshi and Polymarket have both signed big deals with esports data providers, tournament providers and streamers. 

Polymarket now officially sponsors BLAST tournaments. This is more for CS2 and DotA 2 fans, of which BLAST is one of the bigger tournament operators. However, Kalshi’s deal with esports data management and collection platform GRID is more relevant to Valorant players. 

Kalshi signed a multimillion deal with GRID – who work directly with Riot Games, as well as many other big name esports title developers. GRID has already been deployed at Valorant Masters London, and its data will be integrated into Kalshi to allow for expanded depth of contracts. 

Of course, not everyone is happy about this. Esports has previously largely stayed away from gambling sponsorships – and while Kalshi and Polymarket claim they’re not gambling, many US states are contesting legally that they are. Those outcomes remain to be seen, so although prediction markets and esports are likely to get closer in the immediate future, the long term is not certain. Care for a bet on it?